米大統領選、Joe Bidenの再選確率は17%

Content Team April 26, 2023

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米大統領選、Joe Bidenの再選確率は17%

Joe Biden氏は次の米国大統領選挙では本命ではなく、今のところ、賭けアナリストやブックメーカーのオッズによると、次の大統領選挙で再選される可能性は17% (500倍以上) だ。前回の選挙では、Bidenが306人の選挙人を獲得し、Donald Trumpの232人を上回った。来るべき大統領選挙は2024年11月5日火曜日に行われる。Donald Trump前大統領は現在のブックメーカーのお気に入りで、オッズは300倍 (25%の確率) だ。

もしDonald Trumpが共和党の指名を勝ち取れば、彼はStephen Grover Cleveland大統領が彼の前にしたことを成し遂げようとし、アメリカの大統領として2期連続ではない任期を務めるだろう。クリーブランドは二期務め、一期目は1885年から1889年まで、二期目は1893年から1897年まで務めた。

ブッキーのお気に入り

世論調査では、Trump氏を一度も破ったことのあるBiden氏が唯一、勝てる候補と見られている。しかし、彼らは、Bidenが共和党の新候補であるフロリダ州知事のRon DeSantisに負けることは間違いないと予測している。また、Bidenはペンシルベニア州の中流階級出身であることを誇りにしており、有権者は彼をBarack ObamaやHillary Clintonのような政治エリートの一員とはみなしていない。そのため、彼はより地に足がついた、親しみやすい人物に見える。もしBiden氏が米大統領選に勝利すれば、Barack Obama、George Bush、Bill Clintonに続く2期目の大統領となる。大統領選の本命ではないようだが、世論調査ではバイデン氏が僅差でTrump氏を再び破る可能性がある。

前回の選挙でTrumpは 「アメリカをより偉大にする」 と公約し、それは有権者にアピールした。Joe Bidenの選挙方針は 「良識の回復」 であった。

次の選挙ではBidenは81歳で82歳、Trumpは78歳となり、対立する大統領候補が両方とも75歳を超えるのは初めてということになる。

Bidenの功績

Bidenは大統領になってから多くの課題に直面してきた。任期を開始するにあたり、彼はCOVID-19のパンデミック管理に直面した。当時、生活に困窮していた米国市民に最大1,400米ドルを直接支給する1兆9000億米ドルの救済策を展開した。これはさらに、週300米ドルの失業補助金と、救援活動に向けた250億米ドルと3500億米ドルの引当金によって支えられた。Bidenのもう一つの大きな功績は、米国の人口の74%がCOVIDのワクチンを少なくとも1回は接種したと記録されていることである。

Biden氏のもう一つの大きなフラッグシップは、橋や道路、空港、公共交通、水路、エネルギーシステムなどの輸送路の改善に向けた1兆2000億米ドルのインフラ投資を承認したことだった。当時、この法案は民主党と投票権を争った共和党議員13人とノーベル賞受賞者の経済学者15人によって支持された。

私たちはこの法律で多くのことをしています。これにより、企業は商品をより迅速に市場に投入し、サプライチェーンのボトルネックを減らすことが容易になるだろう」 とJoe Biden米国大統領は述べた。

連邦司法と41人の連邦判事の任命は、Biden大統領の政策課題の上位にあった。現在、新たな連邦判事の80%は女性であり、司法の53%はアフリカ系アメリカ人、アジア系アメリカ人、ヒスパニック系である。

Biden大統領も連邦政府による死刑に反対しており、連邦政府による死刑執行を一時停止しているほか、死刑の廃止を明言している。Biden氏は気候変動対策も優先課題としており、クリーンエネルギーへの移行を推進するため、新たな国際的な炭素集約型化石燃料製品への融資を停止した。

Biden氏はまた、米軍内でトランスジェンダーであることを公表することを禁止したトランプ大統領の規定を覆した。彼が大統領になってから、国の失業率も下がった。

Harris, DeSantisおよびHaley

5%以上の確率で当選する可能性のある候補者は、Kamala Harris、Rob DeSantis、Nikki Haleyの3人だけである。

Kamala Harrisがアメリカ史上初の女性副大統領であると発表したことが大きく取り上げられたが、これまでのところ強力な候補者を立てるための有権者の支持を得ることができていない。また、初のアフリカ系アメリカ人およびアジア系アメリカ人の副大統領でもある。しかし、次の選挙が近づくにつれ、Harrisにはより多くの機会が提供され、選挙戦の構築において大衆に積極的に露出することが期待されている。

元サウスカロライナ州知事で米国の国連大使であるNikki Haleyは、彼女がアメリカを統一し、妊娠中絶に関する国民的合意に国を導くことができると述べている。51歳のHaleyはパンジャーブからのシク教徒移民の両親の娘である。彼女は2024年の大統領選挙に共和党から立候補することを正式に表明した。彼女はブッキーのお気に入りの一人だ。

Trumpはもう一人のお気に入りであるRon DeSantisを公の場やソーシャルメディアで攻撃し続けているが、おそらくフロリダ州の知事であるDeSantisと協力しようとしているのだろう。共和党に近い関係者は、Trump氏が副大統領としてDeSantis氏との取引を望んでいると伝えている。もしDeSantis氏がこれを受け入れれば、Trump氏と対立するのをやめることになるかもしれず、これは両大統領候補にとってウィンウィンの状況になるかもしれない。

アメリカは民主主義国家であり、すぐに有権者の判断に委ねられる。現時点では、トランプ氏の再選が有力視されている。

関連トピック:

ブラジルのゲーミング分野における本人確認の克服

SiGMA インサイト:ゲーミング分野におけるESGへの道を開く

SiGMAインサイト:タイにおけるゲーミング-パート2

注目:SiGMA アメリカ–世界iゲーミング祭が6月14日から18日までサンパウロで開催される。?

 

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