Reelei??o de Joe Biden é cotada com apenas 17% de chance nos EUA

Content Team April 26, 2023

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Reelei??o de Joe Biden é cotada com apenas 17% de chance nos EUA

Joe Biden n?o é o favorito para vencer a próxima elei??o nos Estados Unidos e agora ele tem 17% de chance (+500 chances) de ser reeleito na próxima elei??o presidencial, de acordo com analistas de apostas e casas de apostas. Biden venceu a última elei??o com 306 votos eleitorais contra 232 votos de Donald Trump. A próxima elei??o presidencial acontecerá na ter?a-feira, 5 de novembro de 2024. O ex-presidente Donald Trump é o favorito dos apostadores atuais com probabilidades de +300 (25% de chance).

Se Donald Trump vencer o candidato republicano, ele tentará realizar o que o presidente Stephen Grover Cleveland fez antes dele e cumprir dois mandatos n?o consecutivos como presidente dos EUA. Cleveland cumpriu dois mandatos, o primeiro de 1885 a 1889 e o segundo de 1893 a 1897.

Favoritos dos apostadores

Os pesquisadores preveem que Biden é o único candidato que pode derrotar Trump, pois já o derrotou uma vez. No entanto, segundo eles, Biden certamente perderia para o novo candidato republicano em potencial, Ron DeSantis, governador da Flórida. Biden também se orgulha de suas raízes de classe média da Pensilvania e o eleitorado n?o o considera um membro da elite política, como Barack Obama e Hillary Clinton, fazendo-o parecer mais pé no ch?o e acessível. Se Biden vencer a elei??o nos Estados Unidos, ele seguirá Barack Obama, George Bush e Bill Clinton com uma presidência de dois mandatos. Embora ele n?o pare?a ser o favorito para vencer a corrida presidencial, as pesquisas sugerem que Biden pode vencer Trump novamente por pouco.

Durante a última elei??o, Trump prometeu “tornar a América maior”, atraindo, assim, o eleitorado. O mantra eleitoral de Joe Biden era “restaurar a decência”.

Na próxima elei??o, Biden terá 81 anos e Trump terá 78, o que significa que seria a primeira vez que os candidatos presenciais opostos teriam mais de 75 anos.

Conquistas de Biden

Biden enfrentou muitos desafios desde que se tornou presidente. No início de seu mandato, estava lutando para administrar a pandemia de COVID-19, quando lan?ou um pacote de ajuda de US$ 1,9 trilh?o que fornecia pagamentos diretos de até US$ 1.400 a cidad?os americanos que lutavam para sobreviver adicionado a um subsídio de desemprego de US$ 300 por semana e provis?es no valor de US$ 25 bilh?es e US$ 350 bilh?es para esfor?os de socorro. Outra conquista de Biden foi que 74% da popula??o dos EUA foi vacinada com pelo menos uma dose contra a COVID.

Outra grande conquista de Biden foi aprovar um investimento de US$ 1,2 trilh?o em infraestrutura para melhorar as vias de transporte, como pontes e rodovias, aeroportos, transporte público, hidrovias e sistemas de energia. Na época, o projeto contou com o apoio de 13 republicanos que votaram com os democratas e de 15 economistas ganhadores do Prêmio Nobel.

“Estamos fazendo um grande trabalho com essa legisla??o. Esse movimento tornará mais fácil para as empresas colocar seus produtos no mercado mais rapidamente e reduzirá os gargalos na cadeia de suprimentos, agora e nas próximas décadas”. Joe Biden, presidente dos EUA

O judiciário federal e a nomea??o de 41 juízes federais durante seu primeiro ano na Casa Branca estavam no topo da agenda do presidente Biden. Atualmente, 80% dos novos juízes federais s?o mulheres e 53% do judiciário é afro-americano, asiático-americano ou hispanico.

O presidente Biden também se op?e à condena??o federal e suspendeu as execu??es federais. Também se comprometeu a erradicar a pena capital. A luta contra as mudan?as climáticas também tem sido uma prioridade para Biden e o financiamento de novos produtos internacionais a partir de combustíveis fósseis intensivos em carbono foi interrompido para avan?ar para a energia limpa.?

O atual presidente também reverteu a proibi??o de Trump de membros abertamente transgêneros nas for?as armadas dos EUA. A taxa de desemprego nacional também caiu desde que ele assumiu como presidente.

Harris, DeSantis e Haley

Os únicos três candidatos prováveis com mais de 5% de probabilidade de vencer a elei??o nos Estados Unidos s?o Kamala Harris, Rob DeSantis e Nikki Haley.

Depois de muito alarde sobre o anúncio de Kamala Harris como a primeira vice-presidente mulher na história dos EUA, ela n?o conseguiu ganhar o apoio do eleitorado até agora para se tornar uma forte candidata. Ela também é a primeira vice-presidente afro-americana e asiática-americana dos EUA. No entanto, prevê-se que durante o próximo ano, à medida que a próxima elei??o se aproxima, Harris terá mais oportunidades que lhe dar?o uma exposi??o positiva ao público na constru??o da campanha.

Nikki Haley, ex-governadora da Carolina do Sul e embaixadora dos EUA nas Na??es Unidas, afirma que pode unir a América e levar o país a um consenso nacional sobre o aborto. Haley, de 51 anos, é filha de pais imigrantes sikhs de Punjab. Ela anunciou oficialmente sua candidatura à indica??o republicana para presidente em 2024. Ela é uma das favoritas das casas de apostas.?

Embora Trump continue a atacar outro favorito, Ron DeSantis, em público e nas redes sociais, é mais provável que esteja planejando cooperar com o governador da Flórida, DeSantis. Pessoas próximas aos republicanos relatam que Trump gostaria de fazer um acordo com DeSantis para ser seu vice-presidente. Se DeSantis aceitar, isso pode significar que ele deixará de ser oposi??o a Trump e isso pode ser uma situa??o vantajosa para ambos os candidatos presidenciais.

A América é uma democracia e em breve caberá aos eleitores tomar suas decis?es. No momento, as chances das casas de apostas s?o a favor da reelei??o de Trump.

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ATEN??O:? SiGMA Américas – Festival Mundial de iGaming acontecerá em S?o Paulo de 14 a 18 de junho.

 

 

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